29 Aug 2016

Monday 29th August: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 2.35 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.05 %, Hang Seng fell 0.40 %, ASX 200 lost 1.10 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1320 (-0.40 %), Silver at $18.45 (-1.15 %), WTI Oil at $47.00 (-1.40 %), Brent Oil at $49.55 (-1.25 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.62, UK 10 year yield at 0.57, German 10 year yield at -0.07

News & Data:

  • AUS HIA New Home Sales (Jul, MoM): -9.70% (prev 8.20%)
  • PBOC fixes yuan at 6.6856 (vs prev fix 6.6488, prev close 6.669)
  • ECB's Coeure says interest rates could stay low if other policy areas don't contribute
  • Nomura: USDJPY is a buy-on-dips until NFP on Friday
  • BoK: South Korea economy to see mild improvement, driven by services and domestic consumption –RTRS
  • Fed's Yellen sees stronger case for interest rate hike – RTRS

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR 77K short versus 93k short last week
  • GBP 95K short versus 94K short last week
  • JPY 60K long versus 56K long last week
  • CHF 1.8K long versus 1.5K long last week
  • CAD 17K long versus 12K long last week
  • AUD 43K long versus 41K long last week
  • NZD 0.9K short vs 0.7K short last week

Markets Update:

The US Dollar extended gains overnight following comments from Fed Chair Yellen on Friday that the case for an interest rate hike has become stronger. EUR/USD started the new trading week at 1.1190 and consolidated between 1.1175 and 1.1205 for the rest of the session. GBP/USD traded in a 1.3110-40 range. USD/JPY saw slightly higher volatility; the pair opened at 101.90 and rallied to a high of 102.25 after the Tokyo open.
AUD/USD opened at 0.7560 in Sydney and came under renewed pressure, declining to a low of 0.7525 later in the session. NZD/USD initially followed the AUD lower, but was able to bounce off 0.7210 and rallied to a high of 0.7245 earlier.

Today’s EU session could be quiet amid a lack of data and UK markets closed for a bank holiday.

Upcoming Events:

  • 09:00 BST – Italian Consumer Confidence
  • 13:30 BST – US Core PCE Price Index
  • 13:30 BST – US Personal Spending
  • 13:30 BST – US Personal Income
  • 14:30 BST – Fed Chair Yellen speaks
  • 15:30 BST – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, 30th August

  • 00:30 BST – Japan Household Spending
  • 00:30 BST – Japan Retail Sales
  • 00:30 BST – Japan Unemployment Rate
  • 02:30 BST – Australia Building Approvals
  • 07:00 BST – German Import Price Index
  • 08:00 BST – Spanish CPI
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Consumer Confidence
  • 13:00 BST – German CPI
  • 15:00 BST – US CB Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, 31th August

  • 00:50 BST – Japan Industrial Production
  • 02:00 BST – New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence
  • 02:00 BST – RBA Assistant Governor Debelle speaks
  • 02:30 BST – Australia Private Sector Credit
  • 07:00 BST – German Retail Sales
  • 07:45 BST – French CPI
  • 08:55 BST – German Unemployment Rate
  • 09:00 BST – Norway GDP
  • 10:00 BST – Italian CPI
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI
  • 13:15 BST – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian GDP
  • 14:45 BST – US Chicago PMI
  • 15:00 BST – US Pending Home Sales
  • 15:30 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, September 1st

  • 00:30 BST – Australia AIG Manufacturing Index
  • 02:00 BST – China Manufacturing PMI
  • 02:00 BST – China Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • 02:30 BST – Australia Private New Capex
  • 02:30 BST – Australia Retail Sales
  • 02:45 BST – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
  • 03:00 BST – Japan Manufacturing PMI
  • 08:15 BST – Swiss Retail Sales
  • 08:45 BST – Italian Manufacturing PMI
  • 08:50 BST – French Manufacturing PMI
  • 08:55 BST – German Manufacturing PMI
  • 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
  • 09:30 BST – UK Manufacturing PMI
  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 14:45 BST – US Markit Manufacturing PMI
  • 15:00 BST – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • 17:00 BST – ECB's Nowotny speaks
  • 17:25 BST – FOMC Member Mester speaks

Friday, September 2nd

  • 09:00 BST – Italian GDP
  • 09:30 BST – UK Construction PMI
  • 13:30 BST – US NFP
  • 13:30 BST – US Unemployment Rate
  • 13:30 BST – US Average Hourly Earnings
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian Trade Balance
  • 15:00 BST – US Factory Orders
  • 18:00 BST – FOMC Member Lacker speaks
  • 20:30 BST – CFTC Positioning Data

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